CAIRO - BY MIDDLE EAST INSIDER - Apr 13,2024

Egypt views Sudan as a crucial element of its national security, and the current crisis in Sudan has presented the Egyptian government with a series of complicated challenges. These challenges include internal economic difficulties, external foreign policy considerations, and strategic interests that may be at odds with the interests of Arab and Western allies in the region. The situation in Sudan is particularly difficult due to the conflict between two heavily armed sides, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), both of which are roughly equal in terms of fighting manpower. However, the RSF has a history of human rights abuses, and the paramilitary force, which was created by the Sudanese government to counter national threats, is now a significant threat in its own right.

 

The crisis in Sudan is already having an impact on neighbouring countries, including Chad, the Central African Republic, and Eretria, as there has been a massive influx of migrants. However, the threat to Egypt is even greater, as it is already home to over five million Sudanese people, representing more than 10% of Sudan's population, as well as a large number of Palestinian, Libyan, and Syrian refugees and immigrants.

 

The ongoing crisis in Sudan could lead to a significant increase in refugee numbers, and there are concerns that Egypt will not have the capacity to absorb them. Trafficking groups are also taking advantage of the situation and becoming increasingly active along the Sudanese-Egyptian borders, which increases the risk of terrorism and extremist groups infiltrating Egypt.

 

Another security threat to Egypt is the strategic depth provided by Sudan, which could be used in any military action by Egypt against Ethiopia. This is particularly relevant if Ethiopia continues to pose a national security threat to Egypt's water share from the Nile River through the al-Nahda Dam. Sudan's RSF maintains close ties with the Ethiopian leadership, which is not in Egypt's best interests.

 

Sudan is also a regional trade partner to Egypt, with an annual trade exchange of almost $1 billion, as well as being a strategic source of livestock. Egypt also has strategic agricultural and animal production investment plans in Sudan, with more than 90% of Sudan's land being arable, making it an ideal location for achieving long-term food security.

 

It is unclear when or if Egypt will militarily intervene in the conflict, but there are indications that this may happen if the situation deteriorates further. The Egyptian military and intelligence apparatus already have a strong presence in Sudan, and joint exercises have been conducted with the Sudanese army. Additionally, Khalifa Haftar, whom Egypt has supported in his attempt to consolidate control over eastern Libya, has received a firm warning not to support the RSF.

 

However, both Haftar and RSF leader Hemedti have strong ties to Russia's Wagner Group, which is involved in protecting RSF-controlled gold mines in Sudan as well as fighting for Haftar in Libya. Egypt is therefore in the position of having to deal with a foreign group that is closely linked to the Russian administration, with which it maintains close ties, yet one that still poses a significant threat to Egypt's security.

 

The crisis in Sudan presents complex and unique challenges for the Egyptian administration, given its strategic interest in the country as a crucial part of its national security. The conflict in Sudan between the heavily armed Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces poses a major threat to Egypt, which is already home to over five million Sudanese people and a significant number of refugees and immigrants from other countries.

 

The fear of greater refugee influx, border crossing, and smuggling is heightened by the risks associated with terrorism and extremist groups infiltration, especially as trafficking groups take advantage of the situation and become increasingly active along the Sudanese-Egyptian borders.

The RSF's attempt to open Sudan's prisons, allowing prisoners and criminals to escape and destabilizing the country further, further amplifies these risks. Given its previous experience with terrorist attacks along its western border with Libya and eastern border with Gaza, Egypt cannot afford to let the same happen again from its southern border.

It is important to note that any military intervention by Egypt in Sudan could have serious implications for regional stability and could potentially escalate into a larger conflict involving other countries. As such, it is crucial for all parties involved to find a peaceful resolution to the ongoing crisis in Sudan.

 

In the meantime, it is likely that Egypt will continue to closely monitor the situation in Sudan and take steps to protect its national security interests. This may include increasing security measures along the Sudanese-Egyptian border and strengthening its military and intelligence presence in Sudan.

 

Ultimately, the situation in Sudan is complex and dynamic, with numerous factors at play. It will require a coordinated and diplomatic approach from all parties involved to find a peaceful resolution and prevent further escalation of the conflict.

 

The situation in Sudan is complex and poses multiple challenges for Egypt, both in terms of national security and economic interests. While Egypt maintains close ties with Sudan, the growing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) raises concerns about stability and security in the region. Egypt's response to this conflict is not yet clear, but there are indications that a military intervention cannot be ruled out.

 

One factor that may push Egypt towards intervention is its strategic interest in the Nile River, which is threatened by Ethiopia's construction of the al-Nahda Dam. Sudan's ties with Ethiopia and the RSF's close relationship with Sudan's government could further complicate this situation. On the other hand, Egypt's economic ties with Sudan, including trade and agricultural investments, may make it hesitant to take military action.

 

The involvement of outside actors, such as Russia's Wagner Group, adds another layer of complexity to the situation. While Egypt has close ties with Russia, it may not tolerate the group's offering of advanced weaponry to the RSF. The recent killing of an Egyptian embassy staff and diplomat by the RSF further puts pressure on Egypt to react, and it remains to be seen how this incident will affect Egypt's foreign policy towards regional allies.

 

Ultimately, Egypt's response to the conflict in Sudan will depend on a range of factors, including its assessment of the threat to its national security and the potential impact on its economic interests. However, given the presence of Egyptian military and intelligence forces in Sudan and the close ties between the two countries' armies, a military intervention by Egypt cannot be ruled out if the situation deteriorates further.

 

The ongoing conflict in Sudan poses serious threats and risks to neighbouring countries, particularly Egypt, which has significant strategic interests in Sudan. The deteriorating situation in Sudan may compel Cairo to intervene militarily or provide full support and backup to Sudan's national army, the SAF. However, the question of whether the conflict can be resolved peacefully through negotiations remains difficult to predict.

 

The conflict in Sudan also presents an opportunity for Egypt to realign its interests and foreign policy with global powers, such as the United States, which values civilian and democratic ruling. The US and Egypt can enhance bilateral relations and reinforce strategic cooperation over Sudan after years of divergence on regional issues.

 

This will not only benefit the overall security and stability in Sudan but also help in balancing global powers in the Middle East at a time when some GCC countries are looking towards China or indirectly supporting Russia.

 

The conflict in Sudan has significant implications for Egypt's foreign policy and strategic interests in the region. While there are no easy solutions to the conflict, there is an opportunity for Egypt to realign its interests and work with global powers towards a peaceful resolution that promotes stability and security in Sudan and the wider Middle East region.