TOKYO - BY ASIA INSIDER - Oct 17,2023

Japan is often overlooked in discussions about contemporary great power politics, which is not surprising given its discreet, secondary, and modest position in the decades following its defeat in World War Two. However, a closer look at Japan's geopolitical background, historical trajectory, and current situation reveals that it has the potential to play a significant role in the Pacific Basin and beyond. 

 

Despite its prolonged period of inactivity and challenges such as demographic decline, Japan is far from reaching its twilight and can reassert itself as a heavyweight. In the following sections, we will explore why and how Japan can achieve this goal from a long-range perspective.

 

According to Professor Jared Diamond, Japan's geography has played a unique role in shaping its society. Despite being part of the Far East, the Japanese archipelago is separated from the Asian mainland by over 1,000 kilometers. This isolation has influenced the development of clannish and conservative societies, while also leaving Japan vulnerable to the expansionism of continental powers like China and Russia. 

 

Similar to Britain in Europe, Japan's maritime location offers a direct gateway to the wider world in trade, diplomacy, and military matters.

In the Meiji era, Japan decided to pursue industrial development, economic modernization, and technological progress, inspired by classical mercantilism and economic nationalism. 

 

However, unlike Western liberalism, Japan's oligopolistic structure was organically connected to the state through large business clans called Zaibatsu. The state fostered their growth and profits, which in turn increased the overall prosperity of Japanese society. The advanced capabilities of these firms were also used to enhance Japan's military hardware.

 

The rapid rise of Japan's power led to an expansionist grand strategy, resulting in the conquest of Korea, Taiwan, and Manchuria. The state adopted an imperial project aimed at establishing a "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere" under Tokyo's hegemony, which included Southeast Asia, much of China's coastline, and territories held by the Soviet Union in the Far East. 

 

This revisionist plan threatened to undermine the US' position as a Pacific heavyweight, leading to American intervention and the repulsion of Japanese expansionism. The US resorted to dropping nuclear weapons on two Japanese cities to avoid the costs of a ground invasion, prevent the partition of Japan, and send a strong message to the Soviet Union.

After World War II, Japan was caught in a power struggle between the United States and the Soviet Union for global hegemony. The US needed Japan to contain Soviet power in the Far East, and Japan was offered protection, access to American markets, and credit for reconstruction in exchange for strategic, geopolitical, and military tutelage. Japan accepted the deal and became an anchor of American influence and a potential spearhead against the Soviet Union and China. 

 

To prevent the resurgence of Japanese military aggression, Japan reinvented the nature of its national power with a policy of “mercantile realism,” which emphasized economic, industrial, commercial, and financial criteria. Japan revitalized the international competitiveness of its industrial companies, increased its market power in productive sectors, and became a mercurial geoeconomic heavyweight. 

 

Japanese firms engaged and outperformed their American and European counterparts, accumulating massive amounts of holdings denominated in US dollars. As the balance of power shifted, some American geopolitical forecasters anticipated a collision between the US and Japan, and Japanese elites started flirting with the idea of adopting closer ties to Asia. 

 

Japan also actively pursued the strengthening of its “soft power” to minimize the shadow of militaristic aggression that still tarnishes its international reputation and increase its international prestige and influence.

 

The post-Cold War era has brought about significant changes to Japan's strategic environment, particularly with the rise of China as a global power. Japan's alliance with the United States remains a cornerstone of its security strategy, as it faces complex strategic challenges in the Asia-Pacific region.

 

Japan's relationship with the US is grounded in its classification as a major non-NATO ally, which has resulted in a significant American military presence in Japan. The US-Japan alliance also includes collaborative intelligence-sharing ties with the Five Eyes alliance and membership in the Quad, an alliance that aims to contain China's influence in the region.

 

Japan's security strategy also involves pursuing its own defense capabilities, including the acquisition of sophisticated American-made weapons, such as the F-35 fighter jets. However, Japan's defense budget remains limited compared to other major powers in the region, and it faces challenges in developing indigenous defense technologies.

 

Overall, Japan faces a complex and evolving strategic environment, and its security strategy is based on a combination of alliance-building with the United States and pursuit of its own defense capabilities.

 

Japan has historically maintained strong ties with the United States and the West, and this has shaped its foreign policy and strategic outlook. However, it is important to note that Japan has also been actively pursuing diplomatic and economic engagement with other regions, including Asia and the Middle East. 

 

For example, Japan has been working to deepen its ties with ASEAN countries through the "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" (FOIP) initiative, which seeks to promote connectivity, trade and investment, and maritime security in the region.

 

Regarding the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Japan has expressed concerns about the lack of transparency and sustainability of some BRI projects, particularly in the areas of debt sustainability and environmental impact. However, Japan has also been seeking to work with China and other countries on infrastructure development in the region through initiatives such as the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the Partnership for Quality Infrastructure (PQI).

 

While Japan has maintained strong ties with the United States and the West, it has also been actively engaging with other regions and pursuing its own interests in the changing global landscape. The country's response to the BRI has been nuanced and focused on promoting sustainable and transparent infrastructure development in the region.

 

Japan's strategic orientation towards the West is not set in stone and may be subject to change in response to shifting geopolitical realities. While Japan benefits from its alliance with the US in terms of security guarantees and access to advanced military technology, it also faces potential risks and costs associated with being seen as a proxy in the US-China rivalry. In the event of a direct military confrontation between the US and China, Japan could become embroiled in a conflict that could have severe consequences for its own security and economic well-being.

 

Furthermore, as the US-China rivalry evolves and the global balance of power shifts, Japan may find it necessary to adopt a more assertive and independent stance in order to safeguard its own interests. This could involve forging closer ties with other powers in the region such as India, Australia, or even Russia, or pursuing its own independent policies that diverge from the US.

 

As for Japan's relationship with Russia, it is indeed a complicated and ambiguous one. While Japan has joined the Western sanctions regime against Russia over the Ukraine crisis, it remains heavily dependent on Russian energy imports. Tokyo has sought to maintain a balanced approach towards Moscow, seeking to engage with Russia on issues such as energy cooperation and the resolution of the territorial dispute over the Northern Territories. 

 

However, the worsening of US-Russia relations and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine have made it more difficult for Japan to maintain this delicate balancing act. How Japan will navigate its relations with Russia in the coming years remains to be seen.

 

Japan's strategic position is evolving and that there are various possible scenarios for its future orientation. However, predicting the future is always uncertain, and any such predictions must be taken with a grain of salt. The relationships between nations are complex and subject to a wide range of variables, both domestic and international, which can change rapidly and unexpectedly. 

 

It is also important to note that Japan has a long history of cautious diplomacy and strategic hedging, which has allowed it to navigate shifts in the international order without committing too strongly to any one direction. Ultimately, only time will tell what path Japan will take and how it will position itself in a changing global landscape.

 

Japan has a highly advanced and diversified economy, a technologically advanced military-industrial complex, and a highly skilled workforce that could be harnessed for strategic and military purposes. Japan's blue water navy also has the capability for regional power projection, which could be used to safeguard Japan's strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific region. However, it is worth noting that Japan's constitution prohibits the country from maintaining a standing military force for aggressive purposes, and the country has traditionally relied on the US for its security needs. While there is a growing consensus.

 

in Japan that the country should play a more active role in regional security affairs, any move towards greater military assertiveness would likely be met with resistance from some segments of Japanese society. The development of a nuclear weapons program would also be a highly controversial and sensitive issue, given Japan's history as the only country to have suffered a nuclear attack. 

 

Ultimately, any decision to assert Japan's national power more forcefully would need to balance the country's security needs with its commitment to upholding international norms and avoiding actions that could destabilize the region.

 

It is important to note that while there may be factions within the Japanese political class that hold nationalist views and seek to revive the Japanese imperial tradition, this is not the prevailing sentiment within Japanese society as a whole. Japan is a democracy with a diverse political landscape, and opinions on issues such as national identity, foreign policy, and military strategy vary widely. 

 

It is also worth noting that the reactivation of the Japanese military and the increase in defense expenditures have been driven in part by external factors, such as China's growing military assertiveness and North Korea's nuclear program, as well as the changing dynamics of the US-Japan security alliance. 

 

While it is true that Japan has benefited from the security provided by the US and has been pragmatic in its approach to international relations, it is also committed to upholding the rules-based international order and promoting regional stability and cooperation. The Japanese government has stated repeatedly that it has no intention of pursuing a military buildup or engaging in aggressive actions that could destabilize the region.

The evolving geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific region, coupled with the changing balance of power at the global level, present Japan with challenges and opportunities. As a nation with a highly developed economy and advanced military capabilities, Japan has the potential to play a more assertive and independent role in shaping the regional and global order. However, the resurgence of hardline nationalism and the revival of imperial traditions in some quarters of the Japanese political class pose a risk of Japan reverting to its aggressive and expansionist past.

 

The reactivation of the Japanese military, the rise of defense expenditures, and the proliferation of military cooperation with strategic partners indicate that Japan is gearing up to play a more prominent role in regional security. However, the question remains as to how Japan will perform in a confrontational and hostile international system, where several expressions of conflict are proliferating in multiple domains.

 

In summary, the reawakening of Japan as a major and self-confident stakeholder in global affairs is inevitable. However, whether Japan will leverage its economic and military power to promote regional stability and contribute to the construction of a new global order, or whether it will succumb to hardline nationalism and imperial ambitions, remains to be seen.