DAMASCUS - BY MIDDLE EAST INSIDER - Oct 17,2023

There is no denying that significant political shifts are taking place in the Middle East, as evidenced by recent developments such as China's growing influence in the region, certain Arab nations indirectly supporting Russia, Saudi Arabia's position on oil production cuts, hurdles in normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel, the Saudi-Iran agreement, Iran's reconciliation attempts with Egypt, Syria's readmission to the Arab League, and the UAE's withdrawal from the US-led maritime security coalition.

These ongoing changes pose unprecedented challenges for the United States, considering its historical alignment with most Arab nations and their foreign policies.

 

Amidst these political transformations, there may also be substantial economic implications and opportunities worth exploring. One potential avenue for revitalizing Syria's economy after a decade-long civil conflict is the "Five Seas" initiative, introduced by the Syrian government in 2004. 

 

This strategic proposal focuses on five seas surrounding Syria – the Mediterranean Sea, the Red Sea, the Black Sea, the Caspian Sea, and the Arabian Gulf. The primary objective is to establish strong economic and political alliances between Syria and the participating nations, expanding Syria's influence beyond its immediate vicinity. 

 

The initiative emphasizes creating reliable transportation infrastructure that connects the five seas, facilitating seamless trade and commerce among neighboring countries. By doing so, it aims to enhance regional commerce through collective efforts, contributing to global economic development and prosperity. Additionally, the "Five Seas" initiative aims to foster positive diplomatic relations between Syria and neighboring nations in the region.

The recent readmission of Syria to the Arab League suggests a favorable climate for the country to establish stronger ties with key Arab leaders, as evident from the warm welcome received by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad during the Arab League Summit in Jeddah in May 2023.

 

The "Five Seas" Plan proposed by Syria has several crucial elements that would benefit its domestic economy and the economically engaged nations in the plan. Firstly, the development of Syria's sea ports would enable the country to handle larger volumes of goods and cargo, boosting its trade capabilities and generating national revenue.

 

The plan also recognizes Syria's strategic role in the global energy market. Due to its geographical location, Syria plays a critical role in transporting oil and gas from the Middle East to Europe. Efficient transportation of these vital resources would grant Syria bargaining power and enhance its position in the global energy market.

 

The pursuit of gas pipelines connecting Qatar-KSA-Jordan-Syria and Iran-Iraq-Syria, ultimately reaching Turkey and Europe, is a potential game-changer. Such an initiative could provide a more convenient supply of gas to Europe, especially considering the impact of the geopolitical situation in Ukraine on Russian gas supply sustainability.

 

The benefits of the "Five Seas" Plan are not limited to Syria alone; economically engaged nations, including Turkey, stand to gain significantly. Turkey's strategic position, with access to the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, and Aegean Sea, would be further enhanced by Syria's proposed plan. As a vital transit hub for goods between Europe and Asia, Turkey's economy would undoubtedly receive a positive boost.

 

Turkey's engagement with neighboring nations involved in the plan would open up access to additional maritime territories, further strengthening its commercial center and expanding regional trade affiliations. The establishment of rail and road transport networks connecting the Caspian Sea to the Arabian Gulf also holds considerable political significance for Turkey, given its strategic location.

 

Moreover, the plan could enhance Turkey's energy security by diversifying its energy supply routes, reducing its reliance on Russian gas supplies, which has been a concern for both Turkey and Europe in the past.

From a geopolitical standpoint, the "Five Seas" strategy has the potential to elevate Turkey's regional influence and improve diplomatic ties with Syria, a country with which Turkey has had strained relations in recent years. This could counterbalance Russia's attempts to assert dominance over the Black Sea region, further protecting Turkey's strategic interests.

The "Five Seas" Plan proposed by Syria has the potential to bring significant benefits to several countries in the Middle East, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia. For Egypt, the plan offers various opportunities for economic growth and enhanced political influence in the region. 

 

Firstly, with a more coordinated plan for the five seas, Egypt's ports would become even more crucial for international trade, increasing their importance as strategic maritime locations. This would further strengthen Egypt's position as a trade hub between Europe, Asia, and Africa.

Secondly, the plan would open up new trade routes and partnerships for Egypt, enabling the country to tap into new markets and diversify its economy. 

 

This would reduce Egypt's dependence on a few trading partners and provide opportunities for increased exports and lower import costs, leading to improved foreign currency income.

 

Thirdly, the implementation of the plan would involve developing new infrastructure projects, creating job opportunities for locals and fostering foreign investment in Egypt. The country would become a central hub for trade and commerce in the region.

 

Additionally, with the European Union's increasing demand for Egyptian gas, the Five Seas Plan could strategically benefit Egypt by increasing gas sales to the EU. This would further enhance Egypt's importance as a key player in the global energy market.

 

Furthermore, the plan would contribute to strengthening Egypt's political influence in the region through collaboration and collective interests with other participating nations. Strengthened relations between Egypt and other countries in the Five Seas Plan would lead to a more stable and peaceful Middle East, enhancing Egypt's diplomatic standing.

 

For Saudi Arabia, the implementation of the Five Seas Plan presents opportunities for economic diversification and increased political standing in the region. Diversifying trade routes would reduce the country's reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial bottleneck in the Arabian Gulf.

 

The plan's focus on linking Syria with the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea would benefit Saudi Arabia's oil trade by creating fresh maritime pathways for imports and exports. This would enhance the stability of the energy supply chain and reduce the likelihood of interference in global energy supplies.

 

Moreover, the plan promotes economic collaboration among Saudi Arabia and other neighboring nations, such as Egypt and Turkey, leading to enhanced regional integration and stability. Investment in novel ports, logistics hubs, and transportation infrastructure would generate new commercial prospects for Saudi enterprises and financiers.

 

On a larger scale, the implementation of the Five Seas Vision has the potential to foster strategic partnerships between the Middle East and Western nations, including the United States, Russia, and China. This could lead to increased international commerce and stability in the global supply chain.

 

While the plan offers significant advantages, there are potential risks and challenges, including the prevailing security situation in the region. Internal strife in some participating nations may disrupt trade channels and pose security threats. Additionally, the interconnected and interdependent nature of the Middle East could be perceived as a challenge by established international trade powers with vested interests in the region.

 

Despite these challenges, the potential benefits of the Five Seas Plan, such as enhanced economic collaboration, trade, collective political clout, supply chain resilience, diversified economies, energy security, and job creation, make it an attractive prospect for the Arab nations involved. With careful consideration and strategic planning, the plan could contribute to regional economic growth, stability, and a cohesive trade strategy in the Middle East.

 

The "Five Seas" Plan presented by Syria offers numerous advantages for the domestic economy and the economically engaged nations in the region. It provides an opportunity for Syria to strengthen its trade capabilities and position in the global energy market. Additionally, it opens up economic prospects for countries like Turkey, enhancing their regional influence and energy security. However, the success of the plan will depend on navigating the complex geopolitical landscape and addressing the challenges associated with regional tensions and security concerns.