BRUSSELS - BY EU INSIDER - Oct 14,2023

With the impending NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, Ukraine's complex future within the alliance comes to the forefront once again. Ukraine, along with its supportive allies such as Poland, the Baltic states, and the UK, emphasizes the need to avoid repeating the mistakes made at the 2008 Bucharest Summit. During that summit, NATO declared Ukraine and Georgia as future members without providing a clear roadmap or formal framework for their accession. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba recently criticized the empty promises made at Bucharest, highlighting the detrimental impact of ambiguity, which plays into Putin's hands.

 

Initial reports from the media suggest that NATO may hesitate to offer Ukraine a formal path to membership, especially given the ongoing conflict with Russia within Ukraine's borders. Similar to the events at Bucharest, France and Germany favor a more cautious approach that doesn't alienate Russia, while the United States is also likely to exercise caution. 

 

However, the situation could change significantly in the coming months, considering developments such as Britain's provision of long-range missiles capable of targeting Crimea, Germany's announcement of a substantial aid package, and the continued challenges faced by Russian forces in terms of supplies and internal discord. Ukraine is well-prepared for its long-awaited counteroffensive, with support from Berlin, Paris, London, and Warsaw, who have simultaneously delivered significant military equipment.

 

Among the former Soviet republics, Ukraine's potential NATO membership has always been viewed as controversial and threatening from Moscow's perspective. Unlike the Baltic states, which swiftly broke away from Moscow in the 1990s to embrace Euro-Atlantic integration, joining NATO and the EU in 2004, Ukraine's situation is more complex. Ukraine was seen as part of the USSR's "Slavic core," deeply intertwined with Russian identity and considered Moscow's near abroad. 

 

The 2004 Orange Revolution marked Ukraine's first post-Soviet revolution, aiming to challenge the oligarchic class and forge closer ties with Europe. Since the 2013-14 Maidan Uprising and Russia's annexation of Crimea, Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic aspirations across its regions, from Lviv to Kharkiv, have solidified.

In 2019, Ukraine amended its constitution to formally commit to joining NATO, and a recent poll by the International Republican Institute showed that 82% of Ukrainians support NATO membership.

 

While Ukraine may not achieve all its goals at the Vilnius summit, it is important for Kyiv to remember that most NATO member states are on its side. In Europe, particularly on security issues involving Russia, change occurs gradually and then suddenly, as famously noted by Hemingway. It may take another 10 or 20 years for Ukraine to become a NATO member, but it has already influenced and revitalized the alliance in numerous ways. 

 

Foreign Minister Kuleba eloquently expressed in his article the contributions Ukraine can make to NATO, such as innovation in command and control, resourcefulness, local initiative, and expertise in countering hybrid threats and conducting information warfare.

Ukraine's official admission into the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence in Tallinn, Estonia, on May 17 is a powerful symbol of its integration with other member states.

 

Considering the immense benefits Ukraine brings to the alliance and NATO's demonstrated determination since Russia's invasion, there is no looming "brain death," as feared by French President Macron during the Trump presidency.

Instead, there is a strategic vitality that unites Europe from west to east, guided by states of various sizes to confront a common aggressor who seeks domination rather than coexistence. Like the Baltic states, Poland, and others, Ukrainians understand the importance of safeguarding their security to thrive independently from their larger neighbor. 

 

As NATO convenes in Vilnius, it is time to recognize Ukraine's rightful place in Europe as an equal nation, deserving of a seat at the prestigious security table based on its merits as a defender of the European order.