BRUSSELS - BY EUROPEAN INSIDER - Jan 15,2024

On January 23, the Turkish Parliament approved Sweden's application to join NATO, marking a significant step towards Sweden becoming the alliance's 32nd member after Finland joined in April 2023. Sweden's decision to seek NATO membership, alongside Finland, was prompted by the security concerns arising from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, aiming to bolster security in Northern Europe. Sweden's inclusion is anticipated to enhance NATO's capabilities, especially in aerial and maritime defense, with Sweden committing to a 28% increase in its defense budget to achieve NATO's defense spending goal of 2% of GDP. As a NATO member, Sweden will gain access to the alliance's collective defense mechanisms and strategic assets.

 

Turkey's initial resistance to Sweden's NATO membership bid was a strategic maneuver to extract diplomatic concessions, emphasizing Turkey's pivotal role in the alliance's expansion decisions. Turkey's demands centered around the extradition of individuals linked to groups it deems terrorist organizations, including the PKK and factions associated with the 2016 coup attempt against President Erdogan. Despite Sweden's legal adjustments to address these concerns, the complexity of meeting all of Turkey's demands was heightened by Sweden's robust free speech protections.

 

The negotiation process also touched upon the lifting of arms embargoes imposed by Sweden and Finland on Turkey following its 2019 military operations in Syria, offering Turkey an opportunity to enhance its defense procurement and military strength. Turkey's involvement in the NATO expansion process reflects its strategic interest in balancing its relations with Western allies and Russia, and maintaining its regional influence.

 

Domestically, the NATO membership debate served as a diversion for President Erdogan from Turkey's internal issues, such as the economic crisis, and played a role in the context of Turkey's elections in May. The negotiations over Sweden's NATO bid were also linked to Turkey's discussions with the United States regarding defense procurement, including F-16 fighter jets.

 

Hungary's stance on Sweden's NATO membership reflects a complex interplay of domestic politics, strategic diplomacy, and broader geopolitical considerations. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's government has used the ratification process to assert Hungary's sovereignty and independent foreign policy, appealing to nationalist sentiments. Hungary's careful approach towards ratification also stems from its delicate position between supporting NATO's collective defense and avoiding antagonizing Russia, upon which it heavily relies for energy supplies.

 

Hungary's delay in ratifying Sweden's NATO membership can be seen as a strategic move to assert its influence within NATO and to leverage its position for addressing specific national interests, especially in its negotiations with the European Union over various contentious issues.

 

The expansion of NATO to include Finland and Sweden has elicited a mixed response from Russia, with officials signaling a potential military buildup in the region in response. Although Russian officials have threatened to escalate their military presence, including nuclear capabilities, in the Baltic region, the significance of these threats is debated, given Russia's pre-existing military posture in the area, such as its nuclear arsenal in Kaliningrad.

 

The long-term implications of NATO's expansion on Russia's military strategy and the security dynamics in the Baltic and Scandinavian regions remain to be fully understood, highlighting the evolving nature of the geopolitical landscape in Eastern Europe.