CAIRO - BY ASIA INSIDER - Jan 15,2024

In the latter decades of the 20th century, public opinion in Western European nations strongly questioned the strategy of nuclear deterrence, with widespread protests against the deployment of new nuclear weapons marking the period. This skepticism has persisted, as evidenced by multiple surveys indicating a significant preference among European citizens for the removal of nuclear weapons from the continent. A notable instance of this sentiment was captured in a NATO survey on nuclear weapons conducted in January 2020, prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as a 2019 YouGov poll for the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), which showed a clear opposition to nuclear weapons in Belgium, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands—all host countries for US nuclear arms.

 

The discourse around nuclear deterrence has evolved significantly in the wake of the Ukraine conflict. In mid-2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the relocation of some of Russia's nuclear arsenal to Belarus, signaling a clear strategic move. This was compounded by Belarus's declaration of a new military doctrine incorporating nuclear weapon use, explicitly aimed at deterring Polish aggression, according to Belarusian officials.

 

Poland, in response, expressed a desire to join NATO's nuclear sharing, with plans to equip its F-35A aircraft for nuclear delivery. The deployment of US B61 nuclear bombs to Polish bases would be evaluated by NATO in terms of the weapons' security, credibility, and capability to strike targets in Belarus and Russia. Meanwhile, US officials have maintained a cautious stance on Poland's requests, emphasizing the seriousness with which the nuclear threat from Russia is regarded, despite some voices downplaying the risk.

 

The aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine has notably shifted European attitudes towards nuclear deterrence. A study comparing German and Dutch public opinion before and during the conflict revealed a significant increase in support for nuclear deterrence in both countries. This change underscores a growing belief in the effectiveness of nuclear weapons in deterring both nuclear and non-nuclear threats.

 

Conversely, the sentiment towards conventional military deterrence, as gauged by NATO's Annual Tracking Survey, shows only a slight increase in support for higher defense spending post-Ukraine invasion, with significant variations across member states. This suggests a stronger preference for nuclear over conventional deterrence among Europeans, likely due to perceived cost-efficiency and effectiveness.

 

The resurgence of nuclear deterrence as a favored security strategy in Europe echoes former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher's belief in the necessity of nuclear arms for peace, rather than a purely nuclear-free continent. As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, the call for nuanced diplomacy and dialogue becomes ever more critical, both within NATO and with its adversaries, to ensure the strategic and secure application of nuclear deterrence and address remaining global security challenges. NATO's ongoing commitment to deterring Russian nuclear aggression underscores the importance of dialogue and cooperation in maintaining peace and stability in the region.