CENTRAL ASIA SILK ROAD RISING
CAIRO - BY ASIA INSIDER - Jan 15,2024
The South Caucasus and Central Asia, two regions with a shared history spanning two centuries, are poised to become a significant regional bloc. This development could provide these states with the necessary strength to navigate the increasing uncertainties of the current era.
However, despite their potential, these eight nations have yet to achieve unity, lacking a cohesive organization or framework to bring them together. The question arises: what impedes their unification, and what steps are needed to tap into their collective potential? In recent times, these regions have seen a growth in cooperation, notably in connectivity, energy, and cultural exchanges.
A landmark event was the March 2022 Trans-Caspian East-West Middle Corridor agreement, involving Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Kazakhstan. This initiative significantly boosted the transit potential of these countries. The following year, 2023, saw further progress with the establishment of a joint rail company among Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Kazakhstan, along with updates to the Middle Corridor agreement, highlighted by the Tbilisi Silk Road Forum.
Additionally, an October 2023 pact between Georgia and Kazakhstan furthered the development of the Middle Corridor. Despite these advancements, the two regions have much more to accomplish together. Their shared historical background suggests untapped possibilities for deeper cooperation. The independence movements of the South Caucasian and Central Asian states in 1991 marked a significant turn, but their security and foreign policy objectives have since diverged. Regional affiliations formed, with some nations aligning with Russia, while others sought closer ties with NATO and the EU.
This divergence in alliances, along with decisions like Armenia’s continued occupation of Azerbaijani territories, has created complex security challenges. The present global landscape, characterized by a shift towards a multi-polar world, suggests an opportune moment for these regions to consider a unified organizational structure. The Cold War era's Non-Aligned Movement offers a historical precedent for such an arrangement.
A unified regional framework could strengthen these countries against external influences and increase their global influence. Moving away from colonial terminology and adopting a name that reflects their rich heritage, like the Silk Road, could symbolize this new unity. This proposed alignment could particularly benefit smaller states like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, enhancing their global diplomatic maneuverability.
Institutionalizing Trans-Caspian ties could allow each nation to reconsider certain alliances, such as membership in the CSTO, in favor of more beneficial alignments. Without collaboration, these regions risk falling into a pattern of mutual rivalries, weakening their position in the face of global powers. Joint efforts could enable them to address challenges more effectively as a collective force.
Initiatives in connectivity, energy corridors, and digital links could transform these regions into a cohesive network, lowering trade barriers and boosting competitiveness. Enhanced connectivity would also make the Silk Road region a more attractive and stable partner for European trade and investment. Environmental security is another critical area for collaboration. Water resource management presents challenges in both regions, necessitating cooperative solutions. Joint infrastructure projects and regional water agreements could address these issues effectively.
While establishing a regional security architecture might not be the immediate focus, the evolving geopolitical landscape underscores its necessity. A collective security approach could bolster the resilience and sustainability of these nations' independence. This potential regional bloc could also address global security concerns like transnational crime and terrorism.
The potential for cooperation between the South Caucasus and Central Asia is vast, covering areas from environmental initiatives to multilateral diplomacy. However, the absence of a unified regional framework remains a significant hurdle. The experiences of the past three years highlight the importance of internal unity for external strength, a lesson equally relevant to all nations in these regions.
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