SINGAPORE - BY ASIA INSIDER - Apr 13,2024

Asia has emerged as a significant player in global geoeconomics, drawing attention from experts and observers. The region's impact on the world is undeniable due to two primary factors. Firstly, Asia is home to over half of the world's population, and it generates around two-thirds of global economic activity. Consequently, Asia serves as the driving force behind global economic growth.

 

However, Asia is not a homogeneous landscape of peaceful actors. Within its vast expanse, it houses seven of the world's largest militaries, creating a contested space filled with diverse nationalities and ethnicities. Unlike in Europe, where nationalism is often seen unfavorably, Asia embraces it.

 

Most Asian nations have recently undergone decolonization, fueling aspirations and a strong sense of cultural identity. As a result, Asian politics is dynamic, vibrant, and rife with complexities. Geopolitics plays a pivotal role in shaping the region alongside geoeconomics, with China's rise further complicating the overall landscape.

 

In response to the changing geopolitical dynamics in Asia caused by China's ascent, the United States is reevaluating its traditional alliance system and bolstering the capabilities of its regional allies and trusted partners.

 

For a considerable period, Beijing remained discreet about its ambitions and adeptly persuaded others through diplomacy. Chinese leaders cleverly conveyed the notion to the United States that economic reforms would naturally lead to political liberty. This narrative resonated with Washington, as the allure of molding others to align with one's own values is difficult to resist.

 

Following President Nixon's outreach to Chairman Mao in 1971, China quietly aligned itself with the United States against the Soviet Union. Chinese statesman Deng Xiaoping recognized that American capital and technology were crucial for China's economic transformation. By partnering with the United States, China aimed to uplift its massive population from poverty to the middle class.

 

In hindsight, this strategy yielded significant benefits. Western capital, along with Chinese domestic reforms and manufacturing capabilities, propelled China into an economic powerhouse. China's economic growth also provided opportunities for other regional actors to develop their economies. Institutions like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) thrived under the combined advantages of the Chinese economic umbrella and American security protection. This delicate balance between the United States and China formed the foundation for regional economic prosperity.

 

However, like many major powers, China now believes its time has come and seeks to translate its economic might into political power. Consequently, the United States is adjusting its Asia strategy by strengthening its alliance system and empowering its regional partners.

In the 1970s, the United States faced a humiliating setback with the Vietnam War, causing some to doubt its presence in Asian waters. Vietnam represented a case where passion superseded pragmatism.

 

However, Washington repeatedly proved skeptics wrong by reinventing itself and adapting its role in the world. The Vietnam War, for instance, prompted the United States to shift its Asian strategy from onshore containment to offshore balancing. In other words, the idea of direct interventions was abandoned in favor of a more hands-off approach to safeguarding American interests and those of its allies.

 

Offshore balancing entails that if a regional conflict erupts and threatens the position of an American ally, the United States would deploy its military power accordingly. The primary objective of this strategy was to prevent any single power from dominating Asia. As long as no single power posed a threat to American interests or its allies, the United States was content with a more restrained approach.

 

However, China's rapid rise and explicit ambitions to supplant the American-led Asian order have undermined the premise of the old regional equilibrium. Consequently, Washington is reevaluating its strategic outlook in Asia by fostering greater cooperation among its alliance system and equipping regional allies and partners with enhanced capabilities.

Some argue that China's assertiveness stems from its unease with American superiority in Asia and its perception of itself as the region's dominant power. However, Chinese assertiveness has also raised concerns about the potential for conflict, even inadvertently, given the prevailing atmosphere of mutual suspicion in the region.

 

In this context, the United States is seeking to recalibrate its traditional hub-and-spokes alliance system to align with its broader offshore balancing strategy. The goal remains the same: preventing a China-dominated unipolar Asia and pursuing a multipolar Asia. This sentiment resonates with American allies and partners across the region.

 

The reorientation of America's Asia strategy involves two key elements. First, it entails strengthening the spokes, which refers to its allies and partners, by promoting greater engagement among them. Second, it involves enhancing the technological and military capabilities of regional allies and partners.

 

This reorientation makes the role of regional allies and partners more significant, decentralizes burden-sharing, and allows the United States to divert attention from other pressing matters. Consequently, the United States plays a behind-the-scenes role in facilitating reconciliation between Japan and South Korea, encouraging closer cooperation between Australia and Japan, and promoting increased bilateral and minilateral collaboration between India, Japan, and Australia.

 

The Quad arrangement between the United States, Japan, India, and Australia is another initiative aimed at creating flexible regional arrangements in Asia, which help stabilize the regional order during a period of profound geopolitical flux.

 

The other side of these initiatives involves a greater willingness from America's allies and regional partners to assume responsibilities for their own security and regional stability. For instance, the AUKUS arrangement, where Washington and London provide nuclear-powered submarines to Canberra, indicates a growing devolution of capabilities.

 

AUKUS also reflects a heightened regional appetite for taking on more responsibility in terms of regional security. Therefore, it should not be surprising to witness further developments of this nature in the medium term. The increasing defense cooperation between New Delhi and Washington is one example that signals an evolving Asian landscape.