TEL AVIV - BY MIDDLE EAST INSIDER - Apr 13,2024

In the early hours of October 7, 2023, a violent escalation unfolded as Hamas launched a terror attack on Israel, triggering a significant conflict that has since resonated not only in the Middle East but globally. This ongoing conflict has implicated numerous nations, making it a focal point of geopolitical tension worldwide. In South Asia, particularly, the role of India has come under intense scrutiny. 

 

With strategic ties to both the United States and various Middle Eastern nations, India's position is pivotal. This comes at a time when India's Middle Eastern policy has been lauded as a significant achievement of the current government's foreign agenda.

 

Historically, India has managed a delicate balance in its diplomatic relations with both Arab states and Israel. The warming of relations between Israel and key Gulf states recently opened new avenues for India to engage on mutual interests without compromising its diplomatic standings. However, the present conflict poses a challenge to India's diplomatic finesse, requiring careful navigation to maintain momentum in its international relationships.

 

Since Narendra Modi's ascendancy to power in May 2014, India has notably strengthened its ties across the Middle East. Modi’s approach, focusing heavily on economic relations while sidestepping politico-strategic entanglements, has allowed for enhanced partnerships, particularly noticeable in the comprehensive strategic partnership with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and deepened economic and defense ties with Israel and Iran. 

 

This strategy has supported a significant shift from traditional trade and remittance connections towards more comprehensive economic and strategic engagements.

 

The economic stakes are underscored by the robust trade volumes with regional powerhouses like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, as well as a burgeoning trade relationship with Israel, which saw bilateral trade volumes reach approximately USD $10.1 billion in 2022-2023.

 

The I2U2 group—comprising India, Israel, UAE, and the USA—established in October 2021, and subsequent initiatives such as the India-Middle East Food Corridor and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, further signify the growing economic interdependencies and strategic alignments.

 

The conflict between Israel and Hamas, however, threatens to undermine these advancements. For Israel, the conflict has resulted in diplomatic isolation from some Arab nations that had begun to acknowledge its statehood politically and diplomatically. 

 

For India, the escalation necessitates a diplomatic balancing act yet again, as it strives to maintain its historical neutrality and manage its burgeoning strategic partnerships.

 

India’s policy has evolved to treat its relationships with Israel and Palestine independently—a shift from previous governments that intertwined the issues. This change was marked by Modi’s standalone visit to Israel in July 2017 and altered diplomatic language that signaled a nuanced stance toward the Palestinian cause.

 

The recent conflict could potentially influence India’s broader Middle Eastern policy. Despite the geopolitical strains, India remains committed to a two-state solution and continues to express solidarity with both Palestinian humanitarian needs and Israeli security concerns. 

 

Concurrently, India’s internal security dialogues with Israel might intensify, focusing on counter-terrorism efforts—a reflection of shared security concerns.

 

While the Israel-Hamas conflict presents immediate diplomatic challenges, it is unlikely to drastically alter India’s overarching policy in the Middle East. 

 

The situation remains fluid, and as India approaches its general elections, how it navigates these international crises could influence both its domestic political landscape and its strategic positioning globally.